Arsenal secured the Christmas number one spot for the fifth time in Premier League history with a 1-0 victory at Everton on Saturday night, but the data tells a more complex story about their title credentials.
Viktor Gyökeres' penalty in the 27th minute proved decisive after Jake O'Brien's inexplicable handball from a corner, but beyond that set-piece conversion, the underlying numbers suggest Arsenal's attack continues to misfire.
The Christmas Curse Looms Large
History weighs heavily on Arsenal's shoulders. This marks the fifth occasion the Gunners have topped the Premier League table on December 25th – yet they have failed to convert any of the previous four into a championship triumph. In 2002/03 they finished runners-up to Manchester United, in 2007/08 they collapsed to third, and in both 2022/23 and 2023/24 they were overhauled by Manchester City.
The statistical precedent is more encouraging when viewed league-wide: teams leading at Christmas have gone on to win the title in 17 of the Premier League's 33 completed seasons – a conversion rate of 51.5%. Arsenal's specific record, however, remains a significant psychological barrier.
Underlying Metrics Paint Concerning Picture
The victory at Hill Dickinson Stadium exposed familiar patterns in Arsenal's attacking play. Everton failed to register a single shot in the first half – only the second time this has happened to them at home in Premier League history according to Opta data – yet the Gunners struggled to capitalise on their territorial dominance.
Leandro Trossard and Martin Zubimendi both struck the woodwork when the xG suggested they should have converted, while James Tarkowski cleared a Bukayo Saka effort off the line. Arsenal's expected goals from open play continue to lag behind their pre-shot quality, suggesting either finishing issues or a tactical predictability that defenders are learning to read.
Gyökeres' penalty extended his remarkable record from the spot – he has now converted all 19 league penalties since joining Sporting Lisbon in 2023/24 – but his open-play contribution remains a concern. His three shots against Everton represented more than his previous 180 Premier League minutes combined, though he still struggles to impose himself physically despite his 6'1" frame.
City's Ominous Form
Manchester City's 3-0 demolition of West Ham earlier in the day served as a stark reminder of what Arsenal are up against. Erling Haaland's brace took his tally to 19 goals in 17 matches this campaign, surpassing Cristiano Ronaldo on the Premier League's all-time scoring list with 104 goals in 122 fewer appearances.
City have scored 11 goals and conceded none in their last four matches. The champions have found their rhythm at precisely the moment Arsenal's performance levels have dipped.
The Numbers That Matter
Arsenal's two-point cushion is historically precarious. They are the eighth team in Premier League history to hold a two-point lead at Christmas, and while five of the previous seven went on to lift the trophy, the margins for error are slim.
Mikel Arteta's side have won 19 consecutive matches in all competitions when scoring first this season – a testament to their defensive solidity. But their inability to put games to bed and reliance on set-pieces and penalties raises questions about their sustainability over a 38-game campaign.
The festive fixture schedule offers no respite. Arsenal face Brighton on December 27th, followed by a trip to third-placed Newcastle on January 3rd. These are precisely the type of challenging away fixtures where their recent form – one win in their last three league away games before Everton – becomes a liability.
Arsenal may be top at Christmas, but the data suggests they'll need to rediscover their attacking fluency if they're to finally end their 21-year wait for a league title.
