The numbers don't lie: Arsenal are heavy favourites
When Arsenal host Crystal Palace in this delayed Carabao Cup quarter-final, the betting markets have already delivered their verdict. The Gunners are priced around 1.40 to win, with Palace drifting out to 7.00 and the draw hovering near 5.00. But do those odds accurately reflect the underlying data?
Let's break down what the metrics tell us—and where the value might actually lie.
Arsenal's home fortress: the xG perspective
Arsenal's home record this season paints a picture of dominance. At Emirates Stadium, Arteta's men are averaging 2.3 xG per game while conceding just 0.7 xG. That's elite-level performance on both ends of the pitch.
Their defensive structure without Gabriel remains a slight concern, but Saliba has stepped up magnificently as the primary organizer. The underlying numbers suggest Arsenal's clean sheet probability sits around 45% for this fixture—significantly higher than the implied odds suggest.
Key metric to watch: Arsenal's PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) at home averages 8.2, indicating an aggressive pressing system that suffocates opponents in possession. Palace, exhausted from their fixture congestion, will struggle to play through this pressure.
Palace's fatigue crisis in numbers
Here's where the data becomes damning for Oliver Glasner's side. Crystal Palace have played four matches in nine days, and the performance metrics show a clear decline:
Match 1: xG of 1.4, covered 112km collectively
Match 2 (KuPS): xG of 0.9, covered 108km
Match 3 (Leeds): xG of 0.6, covered 104km—conceded 4 goals
The pattern is unmistakable. Palace's pressing intensity has dropped by 23% across this sequence. Their high-speed running distance has fallen off a cliff. Against Arsenal's patient build-up play, they simply won't have the legs to sustain any defensive structure.
Head-to-head: what history tells us
The last meeting between these sides ended 1-0 to Arsenal in late October, with Eberechi Eze scoring against his former club. That match saw Arsenal dominate with 68% possession and 1.8 xG versus Palace's 0.4 xG.
Over the last 10 meetings at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have won 7, drawn 2, and lost just 1. The Gunners have scored 22 goals while conceding only 8. Palace's away record against top-six sides this season is particularly grim: one point from four matches, with a goal difference of -9.
Betting recommendations
After crunching the numbers, here's where I see value in Tuesday's market:
Best bet: Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals @ 2.10
This combination captures Arsenal's defensive solidity while acknowledging their tendency to manage games rather than run up cricket scores in cup competitions. The Gunners have won their last three matches 1-0, 2-0, and 1-0. Expect a professional, controlled victory rather than a demolition.
Value pick: Arsenal clean sheet @ 2.00
Palace have failed to score in their last two away matches against top-half sides. Their xG away from Selhurst Park this season averages just 0.8 per game. With Glasner likely to rotate heavily again, their attacking threat will be severely diminished. Kepa Arrizabalaga, despite being second choice, has kept clean sheets in both his cup appearances this season.
Longshot: Arsenal 2-0 correct score @ 6.50
This scoreline has occurred in three of Arsenal's last eight home matches across all competitions. Their xG data suggests they create enough for two goals while their defensive metrics point toward a shutout. At 6.50, there's genuine value here.
Avoid: Palace or Draw
The fatigue data alone should eliminate Palace from consideration. Any value in their odds has been erased by the physical toll of their schedule. The draw at 5.00 might tempt some, but Arsenal's home dominance—89% win rate in matches where they're priced below 1.50—makes this a sucker bet.
Player props worth considering
Gabriel Jesus to score anytime @ 2.40
Jesus has historically performed well in domestic cup competitions, with 8 goals in his last 14 League Cup and FA Cup appearances. He'll lead the line against tired defenders and should get clear chances.
Eberechi Eze to score anytime @ 3.20
If you're looking for a Palace angle, Eze is it. He scored against his former club in October and has been rested for the last two matches. Fresh legs and a point to prove against familiar faces—there's some value here despite Arsenal's overall dominance.
Final verdict
The data overwhelmingly supports Arsenal. Their home xG differential, Palace's fatigue-induced performance decline, and the head-to-head record all point the same direction.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0
Back the Gunners to win to nil at 2.00—that's where the smart money should go. Arteta's side will control this match from start to finish, limiting Palace to half-chances on the counter before sealing the victory in the second half when the Eagles' legs give out entirely.
The Chelsea semi-final awaits. Arsenal will be there.
