Turf Moor hosts a study in contrasts on Saturday. Burnley, the established Premier League struggler, welcomes Everton, the perennial escape artists. Only one of these narratives can survive December.
The Clarets finally stopped the bleeding at Bournemouth, with Armando Broja's late equaliser ending a seven-match losing streak that had seen them sink to 19th. That it took the Albanian's first Burnley goal—ending a personal drought of 39 Premier League appearances without scoring—speaks to the desperation of their situation.
The Broja Question
Scott Parker faces an intriguing selection dilemma. Does Broja's breakthrough earn him a start against the Toffees? The former Chelsea man has shown flashes of quality that explain why the Stamford Bridge hierarchy once viewed him as a future star. Sustained confidence might unlock something more substantial.
Burnley's defensive numbers remain concerning. Thirty-four goals conceded, second only to West Ham. The return of Maxime Esteve from injury would provide welcome reinforcement, though his fitness remains touch-and-go. Joe Worrall stands ready to deputise.
Everton's AFCON Headache
David Moyes faces problems of his own. Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye are representing Senegal at the Africa Cup of Nations, stripping Everton of two key players who have accounted for five of their last seven goals against promoted sides. Since last season, the Toffees average just one point per game without Ndiaye in the starting eleven.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's hamstring injury compounds the midfield concerns. Dwight McNeil, facing his former club, provides an alternative creative outlet, though his inconsistency has frustrated Everton supporters all season.
Historical Context
The head-to-head record offers little comfort for Burnley. Everton have won their last three meetings across all competitions, keeping clean sheets in each. They've won at both half-time and full-time in each of those encounters—a dominance that suggests tactical supremacy beyond mere form.
Yet Burnley perform better in festive fixtures than their overall record suggests. Scott Parker's side have historically found points between Christmas and New Year, and this three-game home run offers salvation if the Clarets can find rhythm.
What Determines Outcomes
Both teams prefer compact defensive shapes with quick transitions. The difference lies in execution. Burnley build patiently through the middle but struggle to convert possession into clear opportunities. Everton's direct passing creates more immediate threat.
Expected goals data suggests this should be low-scoring—under 2.5 a reasonable prediction. But relegation pressure does strange things to careful tactical plans.
