Nine months ago, Nottingham Forest sat third in the Premier League table. On Saturday, they left Villa Park having suffered their fourth consecutive defeat, with the relegation zone growing uncomfortably close in the rear-view mirror. The contrast could hardly be starker.
Aston Villa's 3-1 victory extended their remarkable home run to eleven straight wins in all competitions, equalling a club record dating back to 1990. But beyond the headline result, this match offered a fascinating study in contrasts: a team with a clear identity and a plan executing precisely, against one seemingly bereft of direction.
Villa's possession dominance
The numbers tell a stark story. Aston Villa recorded 73.1% possession – their third-highest figure at Villa Park since Opta began tracking this metric in 2003-04. They completed 574 successful passes, their best tally in the league this season. Forest, by comparison, managed just 147.
That control didn't immediately translate into chances. Villa had only one shot on target in the first half, despite monopolising the ball. Sean Dyche's side sat deep, compact, and waited for opportunities to counter. It nearly worked: Omari Hutchinson forced Emiliano Martinez into a sharp save before the breakthrough.
But Villa's patience paid dividends in first-half stoppage time. Ollie Watkins, celebrating his 250th appearance for the club, collected the ball 25 yards out, shifted it onto his right foot, and hammered an unstoppable shot into the top corner. It was his fourth goal in three games, his sixth in seven – form that would make him a strong contender for the league's Player of the Season award.
McGinn's historic afternoon
John McGinn's first Premier League brace came in his 311th appearance for Aston Villa. That statistic alone tells you something about the Scotland captain's typical role: the tenacious runner, the ball winner, the player more likely to create chances than convert them.
His first goal was textbook Villa. Matty Cash drove forward down the right and picked out McGinn arriving at the back post. The captain made no mistake, powering his header into the roof of the net. It was the kind of movement and finish that Unai Emery has drilled into this squad: always be ready, always expect the ball.
The second was a gift. John Victor, Forest's goalkeeper, inexplicably rushed 35 yards from his line to challenge Youri Tielemans' through ball. He got nowhere near it. McGinn's first touch took him around the stranded keeper, and from there he had the simple task of curling into an empty net. Victor injured himself in the process, a fitting metaphor for Forest's season.
Forest's alarming decline
In April, Nottingham Forest were third. They had genuine Champions League aspirations under Nuno Espírito Santo. Now, under their third manager of the campaign, they're four points above the relegation zone with half the season remaining.
The managerial carousel has been dizzying. Nuno departed in September after a fallout with owner Evangelos Marinakis. Ange Postecoglou lasted just 39 days and eight winless matches before the axe fell in October. Sean Dyche was brought in to provide stability, but stability without quality is merely organised mediocrity.
Morgan Gibbs-White's goal – a delightful dinked finish over Martinez – briefly offered hope. It was his 50th goal involvement in the Premier League, evidence that Forest possess individual talent. But talent alone doesn't win football matches. Systems do. Cohesion does. Belief does.
Forest showed none of those qualities at Villa Park. Their pressing was sporadic. Their shape in possession was disjointed. Their defending, as Victor's calamitous intervention illustrated, was prone to moments of individual madness.
What's next?
Tuesday's meeting with West Ham at the City Ground carries enormous significance for both clubs. West Ham sit four points behind Forest in 18th, making it a genuine six-pointer in the relegation battle. Dyche must find a way to stop the rot, and quickly.
For Villa, the focus shifts upward. They're six points behind Arsenal with 18 games to play. Their home form – no team has won more Premier League matches at their own ground this season – provides a foundation. But title challenges are built on consistency away from home too, and their recent trip to Arsenal ended in a 4-1 humbling.
Still, Emery has built something genuine in the Midlands. Watkins, McGinn, Martinez, Youri Tielemans, Boubacar Kamara – the spine of this team is excellent. The gap to Chelsea in fifth is now 12 points. Champions League football looks assured. The title? That would require Arsenal to slip, and right now, the Gunners aren't slipping.
But in football, you never know. Villa will keep winning. They'll keep the pressure on. And they'll hope.
