The statistical significance of Erling Haaland's 150th Manchester City goal — reached from the penalty spot against Brighton on Wednesday — is beyond dispute. No Premier League player has ever reached that milestone faster. Just 173 appearances. And yet the night at the Etihad exposed a more troubling pattern for Pep Guardiola's side.
Three consecutive draws to open 2026. Three times City failed to convert dominance into points. Against Brighton, they generated 22 shots worth 2.38 expected goals and converted just one. The wastage is becoming systemic.
Haaland himself crystallised the problem in the 81st minute. Yasin Ayari surrendered possession deep in Brighton territory. Rayan Cherki found Haaland near the penalty spot with a clever pass. The chance was gift-wrapped. And yet the Norwegian's effort was tame, telegraphed, and comfortably saved by Bart Verbruggen.
It was the kind of miss that would have been inconceivable eighteen months ago. Haaland's conversion rate this season sits at 26 goals from 27 matches — still exceptional by any reasonable standard — but the margins are tightening at the summit of the Premier League, and City cannot afford to leave points on the table.
The defensive context matters. With Josko Gvardiol suffering a serious leg injury and both Ruben Dias and John Stones sidelined, Guardiola fielded 20-year-old Max Alleyne alongside Abdukodir Khusanov. It was Alleyne's senior debut. He won more duels and completed more take-ons than any City player in the first half — a promising display under extraordinary pressure — but the structural vulnerability remained evident.
Brighton exploited the inexperience early. Pascal Gross headed at Gianluigi Donnarumma. Ferdi Kadioglu forced another save. Georginio Rutter broke through on goal before Khusanov tracked back to block. The xG was 0.51-0.27 in Brighton's favour after 25 minutes.
City gradually asserted midfield control, and the penalty — awarded via VAR after Diego Gomez tripped Jeremy Doku — shifted the momentum. But the inability to kill the game allowed Kaoru Mitoma to equalise in the 60th minute with a seeing-eye strike through a congested penalty area. The Japanese winger had struck the post moments earlier.
In the closing stages, Haaland saw a header cleared off the line by Kadioglu. Cherki blazed over from a promising position. City created enough to win comfortably but lacked the clinical edge that defined their title-winning campaigns.
The underlying numbers are instructive. City have now dropped nine points from winning positions this season. Five of those have come against Brighton across two meetings. Against lesser opposition — Sunderland in the previous match, Chelsea before that — the pattern repeats: build dominance, concede needlessly, settle for draws.
Arsenal host Liverpool on Thursday. A win would extend their lead to eight points with half the season remaining. City's margin for error has evaporated.
Guardiola was booked for his reaction to the VAR review on the penalty. The frustration is palpable. The squad depth that once made City untouchable has been eroded by injuries and departures. The system that once masked individual limitations is now exposing them.
Haaland's landmark goal — the 35,000th in Premier League history — deserved to be celebrated in victory. Instead, it becomes a footnote in another disappointing evening at the Etihad. The data suggests City remain elite. The results suggest the title is slipping away.
